Signal and the Noise af Nate Silver

Signal and the Noise


Sprog: Dansk


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Format:pdf.epub.lit.ibooks.mobi.mp3.ogg.txt.rtf.doc
Publikationer: 1/2016
ISBN: 1239584949493
Sider: 245
Dimensioner: 5.0 mb
Læse Online:1001
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Signal and the Noise af Nate Silver


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Every time we choose a route to work decide whether to go on a second date or set aside money for a rainy day we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise the New York Times’ political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction. We live in an increasingly data-driven world but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In this dazzling insider’s tour of the world of forecasting Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives.

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